Week 1 LoL FFL Post:

OVER-REACTION MONDAY

Well, on whatever day you’re reading this. I want to jump straight into the games and all the players involved, but it’s going to get a little lengthy with stats, so be prepared. Before I get to that, let’s talk about initial reactions.

Man, do we have a rivalry on our hands. This is something I was trying to figure out how to get started, but it seems like Kyriacos and Chris took care of that for me. Kyriacos made every effort to ensure he wouldn’t lose a game this year by dumping the 2022 draft, but man, was he shocked. Wouldn’t you know it, predictions are not always accurate. But what is a big loss for Kyriacos is a big win for Chris, in multiple ways: a division win with a more-than-likely playoff team and being able to start out the season 1-0. It’s a good feeling to get that first win under your belt and decisively. We had a demolition by Humza against Rimmel, almost doubling up his points, 160-83. We all knew, even going into, it wasn’t a fair fight. Humza was 1-0 before the season even began. Schedule perks. Colten took a slight victory against Ahsan in an extremely low scoring game, 92-81. It was a duel between two teams I had fighting for a playoff spot, so maybe indicative of what’s to come? Ali and Sean, who I didn’t have in the playoffs, really stepped up and showed out, but Ali got the edge 147-134. Yaseer put up a solid effort and beat Parth, 126-98, and Alex took the closest victory of the week against me, only winning by 4.3 points, 128-124. There’s a ton of good notes to mention between these games so we’ll have to take a deeper dive.

NFL Teams Waiting for Tom Brady to Retire...

THE MATCHUPS

Kyriacos v Chris

Let’s start with Kyriacos vs Chris. With a projected score of 115, Kyriacos fell way short of that mark. Although, this is fun to see and would be amazing if it were to continue, we must remember that in this game, Mostert went down for the year, Aiyuk was nowhere to be found, Mike Evans was a decoy, and Derrick Henry was held to 8 yards on his first 9 carries as the Titans got blown out. Going forward, I anticipate Henry to pick it back up, Mostert and Aiyuk will no longer be in the lineup, and Evans will eventually produce numbers. This will account for a nice boost in stats for the weeks after. Chris wins this round easily, but we’ll see about round 2 in week 12 at the end of the season, and maybe a potential rubber match, or round 3, in the playoffs.

Humza v Rimmel

Do we even need to dive into the scores of Humza’s matchup against Rimmel? Humza’s lineup is stacked from top to bottom, and everyone is producing, even Brandin Cooks and the Texans?! Ew. Even Ja’Marr Chase can finally see a football. We’ll see if the team can hold up, but I anticipate no trouble winning and making the playoffs. As for Rimmel’s team, Herbert had a lackluster start, but will get a nice pickup playing against the Cowboys defense without D-Law and Randy Gregory this coming week. He’ll have all day to throw for 300+ yards and 3+ TDs. Ridley saw a lot of good looks but was unable to produce a big day as the Atlanta offense struggled after the first drive against Philadelphia. This will get better as well.

Colten v Ahsan

What was this matchup between Colten and Ahsan? Just a disgusting performance from both sides. I wish I could overwrite the scores and matchups to give them both L’s. They deserve it after their players performances. Like how do 1st round picks, Saquon Barkley and Aaron Jones, both score 3.2 points in week 1 against each other? It’s just sad. It’ll get better though, I promise. We’re not going to talk about Aaron Rodgers scoring 1.2 points though… I mean Ryan Fitzpatrick scored 0.6 points and he’s on the IR. Ahsan received 83% of his points from 3 players, which could be interpreted as amazing or terrible, depending on how you see the outlook of his players. Rodgers and Jones will be better. Defense and Kicker are easy solutions, and the flex is replaceable. So, it seems bright on the other side, hopefully. But then again, this is the same person who told me to draft Julio instead of Thielen, when I had Thielen at the top of my board and was iffy on Julio… Will that decision cost me in the end? We’ll have to see, but it did cost me in week 1. Colten’s team’s results will ultimately end up depending on if he can fix his team’s QB situation. The rest of his team are solid producers and will depend on if Colten is able to make the right decisions on who to start each week.

On the right is 7 years older...???

Ali v Sean

Man did Ali’s team produce in week 1. Did anyone in the world predict Jamaal Williams to get 20+ points in week 1 when DeAndre Swift was starting? ESPN only projected 7.8 points, so I doubt it. The Rams showed no indication of Sony Michel playing a large role. Kelce and Nuke produced as 1st and 2nd round picks should with a combined 45.9 points in week 1. Despite Mahomes and Tyreek Hill producing a combined 64.8 points for Sean, it was not enough to overcome Ali’s team. Do defenses and kickers make a difference? We all remember Ali taking a defense and kicker early… Well, a combined 26 points versus Sean’s 9 points was the difference maker here. That 17-point difference was bigger than the 13-point win by Ali. And no, Kyriacos, the kicker alone did not make a difference. But maybe we should look at that for the rest of the year.

Week 1 Kicker Difference = None (Alex v Nazim would’ve been a 1-point game instead, but Alex still wins)

Yaseer v Parth

Can Parth get a TD to save his life? Only 1 TD from a non-QB player in week 1 by Logan Thomas. Tough luck there. Still putting up 98 points is impressive in my opinion. Things will get better there as TD’s start to pour in, I have no doubt. I mean, I did pick him to win it all in the end, so I got to back my horse there. I really have no choice. Yaseer, on the other hand, was the beneficiary of TD’s: 6 of them to be exact, from non-QB players. That 5 TD difference is worth 30 points and Yaseer won by 28 points… I’m not saying Parth could’ve easily won the game, but maybe it was closer than you realize from looking at the score, 126-98. We’ll see how that TD production continues in the coming weeks and the impact it has. Also, just to note, another couple of top 15 picks scoring about 5 points in week 1: Zeke and Najee Harris. Just another thing to keep an eye on.

Nazim v Alex

I really don’t want to talk about my matchup for a multitude of reasons, so I won’t. So many ways I could’ve won. If only I checked my lineup on Sunday to make a change… I hate you, Alex!

Some quick notes on the auction report from Wednesday:

· I picked up Elijah Mitchell for $22, outbidding Ali ($21), Yaseer ($19), Rimmel ($15), Kyriacos ($11), and Colten ($1) – This is always an awesome feeling, winning by close margins. Will this have a real impact? No idea, but it’s always fun when it happens!

· I picked up Sterling Shepard for $12, outbidding Yaseer ($9)

· Yaseer picked up Tim Patrick for $9, outbidding me ($2)

STATS AND MORE STATS

It was an interesting week 1 for sure. Just looking at scores, I saw a ton of WR’s doing well, and a lot of points being scored. 19 targets for Darren Waller?! That’s just crazy! How could they not guard a guy getting 19 targets in 1 game? Here’s some interesting stats for week 1 before we dive in a little further:

QB’s with 20+ points:

2020 = 14

2021 = 15

RB’s with 15+ points:

2020 = 12

2021 = 15

WR’s with 15+ points:

2020 = 15

2021 = 24

TE’s with 15+ points:

2020 = 3

2021 = 5

There are so many receivers this year that will be super productive and that is clear from the dramatic increase in production in week 1. Will that continue next week? We shall see. But it is clear that WR’s can be found for fantasy.

I also wanted to discuss the likelihood of production increasing after a disappointing week 1 based on last year’s values. From the top 2 rounds, we had low scores from Derrick Henry (9.2), Zeke (4.9), Aaron Jones (3.2), Saquon Barkley (3.2), Najee Harris (5.4), Devante Adams (8.1), Calvin Ridley (7.6), and Mike Evans (3.9) – 5 RB’s & 3 WR’s (although Saquon was on a limited snap share). From 2020, there were multiple players who scored sub-10 points in week 1 and ended up as top 15 players at their positions. But the real question is, did any top 25 pick players produce such low numbers in week 1? In 2020, there were in fact exactly 5 RB’s & 2 WR’s:

· Saquon was taken at #2 and produced 9.8 points, and subsequently was injured for the season in week 2.

· Miles Sanders was taken #8 but did not play week 1.

· Nick Chubb was taken at #13 and produced 5.1 points.

· Austin Ekeler was taken at #16 and produced 9.2 points.

· Joe Mixon was taken at #17 and produced 5.6 points.

· Michael Thomas was taken at #5 and produced 3.2 points. Although, he was injured in that game, so it doesn’t really count.

· Mike Evans was taken at #24 and produced 6.7 points (sound familiar?).

If we take injuries out of the equation, based on points/week when healthy, only Miles Sanders and Michael Thomas did not place in the top 15 of their positions. This bodes well for the guys starting out slow this year, but also shows maybe an injury risk. Of the 7 players listed, only Mike Evans didn’t miss at least 4 games during the 2020 season. Saquon scoring 9.8 and Henry scoring 9.2 after both being ranked as top 4 RB’s going into the year sounds eerily familiar, just like Mike Evans repeating 2020. Will Derrick Henry get an injury in week 2 to take him out for the year and will Mike Evans ball out the rest of the year and end up a top-10 WR? Big implications for Kyriacos’ team, that’s for sure. Will Aaron Jones, Najee Harris, Saquon Barkley, Davante Adams, Calvin Ridley, and Zeke also get hurt but have good games while healthy? Who will be the Miles Sanders and Michael Thomas of this year’s group and lack production? If I had to guess, I wouldn’t even know who to choose. But we’ll have to wait and see if history repeats itself.

The flipside of this question is whether there are top 25 picks that had great week 1 performances and then did not end up at top 15 players at their positions? There were 3 RB’s in 2020:

· Zeke was drafted at #3 and produced 13.2 points/week (RB #16)

· Clyde Edwards-Helaire was drafted at #9 and produced 12.2 (RB #23)

· Kenyan Drake was drafted at #11 and produced 12.0 points/week (RB #24)

Overall, not horrible, so rest easy in your guys that you selected within the top 25. Barring injuries, they should perform well over the course of the season.

LEAGUE STATS

3 inter-division games in Week 1, which means 3 wins in each division – nothing significant yet…

Overall points/team = 113.8 scored in week 1

Young Guns = combined 779.4 scored in week 1

Veteran Leaders = combined 586.0 scored in week 1

A whooping difference of 193.4 points between the divisions. Interesting to see the division where I had only 2 of the teams make it, poured out the points in week 1, and the division I had 4 teams making it, struggled hard. Will this be foreshadowing of the future, or was it a fluke? One week is hardly a large sample size, so we can just blame everything this week on Kyriacos.

Interesting stat to note. Despite Kyriacos losing and only putting up 71.0 points, the lowest of the week, ESPN still gives him a 64% chance of making the playoffs. For perspective, Rimmel put up 83.4 points, and was only given a 10% chance after this week’s loss. Both teams are 0-1, so what do numbers know? Rimmel and Kyriacos after week 1 are at the bottom, regardless of what anyone thinks. I know all of us besides them two are very happy with these results and will gladly take a last place game between them at the end of the season! 10 votes to add a mid-season rule officially placing them in the last-place game, regardless of results? I vote yes!

SIDE NOTE: Since we already have a weekly prize for most points, I think we should instill a weekly punishment for least points each week. Doesn’t have to be anything crazy, but I think it would be fun. Kyriacos, you up for doing something? Want to forfeit some more picks next year?

P.S. Don’t expect these posts on Thursday mornings every week or to be this long each week. I just had some extra time watching the sunsets in Hawaii. Honestly, most of the time, I will post them on Friday’s or Saturday’s.

WEEK 1 POWER RANKINGS

My Rankings:

1. Humza (+1)

2. Kyriacos (-1)

3. Chris (+1)

4. Alex (+1)

5. Parth (-2)

6. Colten (-)

7. Ahsan (-)

8. Yaseer (+1)

9. Ali (+2)

10. Sean (-2)

11. Nazim (-1)

12. Rimmel (-)

ESPN Rankings:

1. Humza (+1)

2. Kyriacos (-1)

3. Chris (-)

4. Ali (+2)

5. Parth (-)

6. Yaseer (+4)

7. Sean (+2)

8. Ahsan (-)

9. Alex (-5)

10. Colten (-3)

11. Nazim (-)

12. Rimmel (-)

Week 1 Most Points: Humza

TOTALS YTD:

· Humza: $10

PREDICTIONS

Week 2 Predictions:

Ali v Nazim: 103-119

Sean v Rimmel: 126-123

Humza v Alex: 132-98

Yaseer v Colten: 99-82

Ahsan v Kyriacos: 139-148

Parth v Chris: 155-91

Top Scorer: Parth

WEEK 1 BETS REVIEW

Overall, pretty good week! I like the start, let’s keep it going!

Naz’s Pick-6 (Game Lines for Bets):

1. [W] Cowboys (+8) @ Buccaneers

2. [W] Steelers (+6.5) @ Bills

3. [W] Bears @ Rams (-7.5)

4. [L] Broncos @ Giants (+2.5)

5. [L] Browns @ Chiefs (-6)

6. [W] Chargers (-1) @ Washington

Week 1: 4-2 | Net Profit: +160 (based on -120 odds, each for 100)

YTD: 4-2 | +160

Naz’s Daily Dump (FanDuel Daily for Bets - $60,000: 50/50 League):

QB: Kirk Cousins - $7,200

RB: Christian McCaffrey - $10,400

RB: Najee Harris - $6,500

WR: Keenan Allen - $7,400

WR: Robby Anderson - $6,200

WR: Corey Davis - $5,800

TE: Kyle Pitts - $6,000

FLEX: James Robinson - $5,900

DEF: New England Patriots - $4,400

Week 1: [WINNER] 19/100 - 113 points

YTD: 1-0 | +80

WEEK 2 BETS

Naz’s Pick-6 (Game Lines for Bets):

1. Buffalo Bills (-3.5) @ Miami Dolphins

2. New England Patriots @ New York Jets (+6)

3. San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles (+3)

4. Tennessee Titans (+6) @ Seattle Seahawks

5. Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers (-10.5)

6. Cincinnati Bengals (+3) @ Chicago Bears

Naz’s Daily Dump (FanDuel Daily for Bets - $60,000: 50/50 League):

QB: Justin Herbert - $7,600

RB: Christian McCaffrey - $10,000

RB: Elijah Mitchell - $5,800

WR: Keenan Allen - $7,400

WR: Calvin Ridley - $7,700

WR: Tim Patrick - $5,400

TE: David Njoku - $4,800

FLEX: Darren Waller - $7,000

DEF: New Orleans Saints - $4,300