Week 13 LoL FFL Post:

KYRIACOS IS NOW ON LTIR, RETURN UNKNOWN

Alex v Naz

A strong early performance from Murray, Montgomery, and Godwin weren’t enough to overcome a 0.0 performance from Hunter Henry on Monday night. Alex loses a close battle and takes a hit on his run to the playoffs. Naz essentially clinches a playoff spot and a chance to win the division.

Patriot's playbook on Monday night

Sean v Humza

Humza has no TE to play and somehow still ends up with a victory, despite only putting up an abysmal 75 points (3rd lowest score this week). Luckily for him, Browns on a bye so Sean’s team basically was on a bye, putting up the lowest total of the week at 60 points and almost ruining his chances of making the playoffs after being in the division lead a couple weeks prior. Sean needs some help to make the playoffs and Humza wins but is still essentially eliminated from the playoffs. Humza will go into the final week looking to avoid the last place game.

When you do nothing on the group project but still get an A

Ahsan v Parth

A strong effort from Ahsan was not effort to beat Parth this week as they even up their records. Big win for Parth as he makes his push for the playoffs.

Yas v Kcos

George Kittle puts on a clinic with Deebo Samuel not in the lineup. A solid 35-point performance to go along with Kupp’s 23 points and Jake Elliot’s kicking clinic were more than enough to beat Kcos and essentially lock up the #1 seed and secure multiple bags. Yas wins easily even though he didn’t check his lineup beforehand and left AUSTIN WALTER in the lineup?!

Rimmel v Ali

Rimmel puts up another solid performance across the board while Ali’s team struggles to put any numbers on the board. It’s hard to win when your defense is your second highest scoring player at 14 points and 4 of your position players don’t score more than 5 points. Rimmel sits on the top of the division essentially making the playoffs and Ali falls out of the race competing to not end up in the last place game.

Colten v Chris

Colten, although eliminated and locked in the last place game, showed up to destroy Chris’ team and Jefferson’s 30-point and Goedert’s 25-point performances. Big points from the Chargers and Rams players were enough to carry Colten to the victory. Colten will be playing for fun next week as he preps for the last place game. Chris has essentially locked up a playoff spot and will be looking to ruin Parth’s run into the playoffs.

PLAYOFF SCENARIOS:

**DISCLAIMER: THIS IS BY NO MEANS AN EXACT SCIENCE AND I DID EVERYTHING BY HAND SO ERRORS ARE MORE THAN LIKELY. DO NOT TAKE THIS TO HEART. THIS IS JUST FOR REFERENCE AND FUN. YOUR OWN HEARTBREAK BY MY CALCULATIONS IS NOT THE FAULT OF THE COMMISSIONER OR LEGION OF LOCKERROOMS. THE LEAGUE IS NOT LIABLE FOR ANY INJURY OR HARM CAUSED BY THIS POST. GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE IN THIS FINAL WEEK OF THE REGULAR SEASON**

2 matchups during the season:

- Naz v Alex

- Rimmel v Sean

- Chris v Parth

- Sean v Humza

- Sean v Alex

- Alex v Ali

- Ahsan v Parth

Week 14 Matchups:

- Naz v Humza

- Yas v Colt

- Kcos v Ahsan

- Ali v Alex

- Rimmel v Sean

- Chris v Parth

Colten = 0-2 vs Ali & Humza

NOTES:

- Each division winner will be ranked #1 and #2 seeds and will receive 1st round byes

- After the division winners, the remaining 4 playoff spots will be wild card teams from either division with ESPN’s tiebreaker rules applied

o Tiebreaker goes Head-2-Head record unless multiple teams with different number

of matchups between the tied teams (as described in the previous post) – it will then

proceed to go by most points scored on the season

YASEER:

- Clinched playoff spot

- Clinched #1 seed and bye week:

o Win

o Loss AND Kyriacos Loss

o Loss AND Kyriacos Win AND < 39.5-point differential between Kyriacos and Yaseer

- Otherwise, clinches #3 seed

KYRIACOS:

- Clinched playoff spot

- Clinched #1 seed and bye week:

o Win AND Yaseer Loss AND > 39.5-point differential between Kyriacos and Yaseer

- Otherwise, clinches #3 seed

COLTEN:

- Eliminated from playoffs

- Clinched last place playoff game spot

HUMZA:

- Clinches #6 seed into playoffs:

o Win AND Alex Loss AND Sean Loss AND Parth Loss AND Ahsan Loss AND >

100.5-point differential between Humza and Parth AND > 72.4-point differential

between Humza and Alex (Most points scored on season between 6 teams)

- Clinches last place playoff game spot:

o Loss

ALI:

- Clinches #6 seed into playoffs:

o Win AND Sean Loss AND Parth Loss AND Ahsan Loss AND > 98.8-point differential

between Ali and Parth AND > 70.7-point differential between Ali and Alex (Most points

scored on season between 5 teams)

- Clinches last place playoff game spot:

o Loss AND Humza Win

Lions making the playoffs ~ Ali and Humza making the playoffs

For the LAST PLACE GAME – If Ali & Humza Win AND Losses by any of Sean, Alex, Parth, Ahsan, it will come down to tiebreakers – I have not written those out here, but you can look for yourself and calculate if this scenario occurs

For CHRIS, RIMMEL, NAZIM, ALEX, SEAN, PARTH, AHSAN, we will look at game results and show who will make it based on results (Yas v Colten matchup is inconsequential for this analysis): Only 4 playoff spots need to be determined since Yas and Kcos clinched

**Analysis assumes no team can make up 60+ points of ground on the other teams**

NAZIM:

- Clinched playoff spot (Rimmel owns head-2-head tiebreaker for division win, but Naz owns tiebreakers with other teams for most points scored)

CHRIS:

- Clinched playoff spot unless a couple scenarios if Alex and Parth end up with more points on the season than Chris (would need to be Rimmel & Naz in with tiebreaker between Alex, Parth, and Chris)

RIMMEL:

- Win the division with a Win

- Loss becomes subject to tiebreakers: 5/32 scenarios where he does not win the tiebreakers

o 15.6% chance of missing the playoffs

AHSAN:

- Essentially Loss and Out

- Win leads to a 15.6% chance of making the playoffs:

o 3/32 scenarios where no tiebreak and outright making playoffs = 9.4%

o 2/32 scenarios where win tiebreaker if scoring more than Sean on the season =

6.3%

SEAN:

- Essentially Loss and Out

- Win leads to a 15.6% chance of making the playoffs:

o 3/32 scenarios where no tiebreak and outright making playoffs = 9.4%

o 2/32 scenarios where win tiebreaker if scoring more than Ahsan on the season =

6.3%

PARTH:

- Essentially Win and in (and scoring more points than everyone below him)

- Can still make it with a Loss, but requires tiebreakers to make it

o 17/32 scenarios where tiebreakers will put him in the playoffs = 53.1%

ALEX:

- Essentially Win and in (and scoring more points than Parth and everyone below him)

- Can still make it with a Loss, but requires tiebreakers to make it

o 17/32 scenarios where tiebreakers will put him in the playoffs = 53.1%

BASICALLY, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS NAZ, RIMMEL, CHRIS, AND EITHER PARTH OR ALEX MAKE IT IN UNLESS WE GET 1 OF THESE OTHER CRAZY SCENARIOS LISTED ABOVE

NAZ’S NOTES & AUCTION REPORT

- Parth got D’Onta Foreman for $65 over Yas ($24)

WEEKLY PAYOUTS

Week 13 Most Points: Yaseer

- Humza: $10

- Yaseer: $40

- Kyriacos: $40

- Sean: $10

- Parth: $20

- Nazim: $10

Week 13 Least Points: Sean

- Kyriacos: 2

- Sean: 3

- Parth: 2

- Colten: 3

- Rimmel: 3

Kicker Impact in Week 13: None

YTD: 7x

- Ali: 2-2

- Alex: 2-1

- Sean: 1-0

- Colten: 0-1

- Parth: 0-1

- Ahsan: 1-0

- Kyriacos: 1-0

- Chris: 0-1

- Humza: 0-1

WEEK 13 POWER RANKINGS

WEEK 14 PREDICTIONS

Naz v Humza: 103-88

Yas v Colten: 101-86

Kcos v Ahsan: 115-79

Ali v Alex: 95-105

Rimmel v Sean: 98-99

Chris v Parth: 129-121

Top Scorer: Chris

Week 13 Predictions: 3-3

YTD: 35-37

WEEK 13 BETS REVIEW

Naz’s Pick-6 (Game Lines for Bets):

N/A - Week 12: 0-0

YTD: 30-38-3 | -1380

Naz’s Daily Dump (FanDuel Daily for Bets - $60,000: 50/50 League):

[N/A] 1/100

YTD: 4-7 | -510

WEEK 14 BETS

Naz’s Pick-6 (Game Lines for Bets):

1. Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) @ Washington Football Team

2. Atlanta Falcons (+3) @ Carolina Panthers

3. San Francisco 49ers @ Cincinnati Bengals (+1.5)

4. Detroit Lions (+10.5) @ Denver Broncos

5. New Orleans Saints (-5.5) @ New York Jets

6. Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs (-10)

Naz’s Daily Dump (FanDuel Daily for Bets - $60,000: 50/50 League):

QB: Justin Herbert - $8,400

RB: Chubba Hubbard - $6,500

RB: Jermar Jefferson - $5,100

WR: Deebo Samuel - $8,500

WR: Tyreek Hill - $8,700

WR: Stefon Diggs - $8,200

TE: Foster Moreau - $5,200

FLEX: Ty Johnson - $4,900

DEF: Denver Broncos - $4,400